How it Works
AL.SoccerRanked.com — Methodology & FAQ
How is the Rating calculated?
The Index uses a system called Simple Rating System (SRS) — the same foundational math used by NFL computer rankings and college football rating systems. Every team starts at zero and the math works outward from there. Beat a good team and your rating goes up. Lose to a bad team and it drops. The system runs through 250 iterations until every team's rating stabilizes and reflects the full chain of results across the entire state. A rating of 0.0 means exactly average. Positive numbers mean better than average, negative means below average. A rating of +2.00 is considered elite.
What is Strength of Schedule (SOS)?
SOS is the average rating of all the opponents a team has faced. A team that has played Chelsea, Homewood, and Vestavia Hills will have a much higher SOS than a team that has only beaten bottom-tier opponents. SOS is what separates an 8-2 team that beat nobody from a 6-4 team that played a murderer's row every week. In our model, beating a higher-rated opponent is worth more than beating a lower-rated one — so your SOS directly influences your rating.
What is the Form Index?
The Form toggle on the rankings page re-ranks every team based solely on their last 5 games. It answers the question: who is playing the best soccer right now? A team that started the season slow but has won 4 of their last 5 against quality opponents will jump up in Form mode. A team coasting on early-season results that has gone cold lately will drop. Teams marked 🔥 are performing significantly better recently than their season rating suggests. Teams marked ❄️ are in a slump relative to where they've been all year.
Do classifications matter in the rankings?
Yes. Beating a higher-classification team earns a rating bonus — the bigger the gap, the bigger the bonus. Losing to a lower-classification team carries an additional penalty. This means smaller-school teams that compete well against bigger schools are rewarded. The statewide view includes a ⚔️ Giant Killer badge for any team in a lower classification that is outperforming the average rating of the highest classification. Note: starting in 2026-27, private schools will move to their own classification subsystem — rankings will reflect whatever structure AHSAA has in place for that season.
Does it matter when games were played?
Yes — recent games count more. A win in the last two weeks carries full weight, while a win from six or more weeks ago carries about 60% of that weight. This reflects the reality that teams evolve over a season. A team that was struggling in February but is dominant in March should be ranked on who they are now, not who they were.
Do area games count differently?
Yes. Wins and draws in area play carry a bonus on top of the normal result value. This reflects that area games directly determine playoff seeding and represent the games each team is specifically built to win.
Is the coaches poll used in the rankings?
Yes, as a secondary input. Every Sunday the AHSAA coaches vote on the top 10 in each classification. We blend that poll into the ratings as a starting point — especially early in the season when there isn't enough game data yet for the math alone to be reliable. As the season progresses and more games are played, the actual results take over and the poll influence naturally fades.
Why does a team need 6 games to appear in the rankings?
With fewer than 6 official games, a team's rating is too volatile to be meaningful. A 3-0 team that has only played three games shouldn't rank above a battle-tested 8-3 team. Once a team crosses the 6-game threshold their rating is calculated and they appear in the rankings automatically. Scrimmages count at half weight and do not count toward the 6-game minimum.
Why is my team ranked below a team we beat?
The Index looks at your entire body of work, not just one result. If you beat Team A but lost several games to teams that Team A also beat, your overall rating may still be lower. The math accounts for who everyone has played across the whole state — a single head-to-head result is one data point in a network of hundreds of games.
What is on the individual team profile page?
Click any team name in the rankings to open their full profile. You'll see their current rating and SOS, overall record, area record, goal differential, and a rating history chart showing how their ranking has trended across the entire season. Below the chart is a full season results table showing every game with date, opponent, score, result, location, and a weekly rating delta showing how each stretch of games moved their ranking. You can also click any opponent to jump to their profile.
How accurate is the Matchup Predictor?
The predictor uses a Poisson distribution model — the same statistical approach used by professional soccer analytics. It converts the rating difference between two teams into expected goals and simulates thousands of possible scorelines. The projected score shown is the single most likely outcome, but the win probability percentages are more meaningful than the exact score. A 10-0 actual result when the model projected 5-0 isn't a failure — it means the model correctly identified a large mismatch, and a 10-0 is simply a tail outcome of that mismatch. A mercy rule warning appears when the model projects a blowout.
When does the data update?
The scraper runs every night at midnight CST, pulling the latest results from all AHSAA classifications for both boys and girls. Rankings are recalculated immediately after. The coaches poll is also checked nightly and updated when new weekly rankings are published on Sunday afternoons.
Does this cover both boys and girls soccer?
Yes. Use the Boys / Girls toggle at the top of any page to switch between programs. Both use the same rating methodology and are completely independent — a boys rating and a girls rating are not comparable to each other, only within their own gender.
Where does the data come from?
Game results, schedules, and coaches poll data are sourced from Scorbord.com — the most comprehensive high school soccer data platform in Alabama. AL.SoccerRanked.com is a proud partner of Scorbord. If you notice a missing or incorrect result, the best way to fix it is to make sure it is entered correctly on Scorbord.